During a compelling discussion with Tucker Carlson, prominent economist Oren Cass delivered a striking forecast about the long-term effects of Donald Trump’s tariffs on the United States economy and its global influence. According to Cass, Trump’s aggressive tariff policies may not only disrupt the old trade order but also forge stronger international alliances and stimulate balanced trade practices.
In the interview aired Friday, Cass emphasized the strategic shift emerging from Trump’s “America First” economic doctrine, arguing that the use of reciprocal tariffs could permanently reshape how the U.S. navigates global trade.
“What we’re seeing is a transition from a U.S.-led world order to a multipolar world, where China stands as a rival both economically and technologically,” Cass explained.
Ending the Era of One-Sided Trade: Cass Supports Tariff Reforms
Cass warned that the days of the U.S. acting as the “benevolent open market” are over. In an era where China’s economic footprint rivals or surpasses the U.S., relying on outdated trade assumptions is no longer viable.
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“Tariffs are the tip of the spear, signaling the end of a broken global system,” said Cass. “The U.S. is now shifting toward a trade model that supports strong alliances and fair, reciprocal economic relationships.”
Cass said that under Trump’s leadership, the U.S. is putting clear conditions on allies: participate in balanced trade and share the burden of global defense efforts. Nations will no longer receive unconditional benefits such as access to the American market or U.S. military protection without contributing their fair share.
Stronger Allies, Freer Trade – But on American Terms
Following Trump’s proclamation of “Liberation Day”, the administration paused tariffs for 90 days—with the exception of those targeting China. This temporary truce opened the door to new bilateral trade talks, while simultaneously escalating the tariff war with Beijing, including a 145% duty on Chinese goods as of May 10.
“The idea now is to build a coalition of countries that share America’s values—nations willing to enforce fair trade and deter mutual adversaries,” Cass said.
Countries like Japan, Germany, Mexico, and Canada are expected to take more proactive roles in regional security and adopt similar trade policies toward China, ensuring that America’s adversaries do not exploit indirect trade routes.
Supply Chain Overhaul: Kicking China Out of America’s Economy
Cass further explained that Trump’s supply chain realignment seeks to eliminate Chinese influence from critical U.S. industries.
“You can’t let Chinese products sneak into the U.S. through backdoors like Mexico or Canada,” Cass stressed. “That’s why Trump started with those two nations—to make sure they align with our new trade framework.”
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has already urged both Canada and Mexico to mirror U.S. tariffs on China, closing loopholes and preventing the “screen door effect” in international trade.
“If we’re going to form a North American trade alliance, it must be airtight,” Cass added. “No more indirect dependency on Chinese manufacturing.”
Trillions in Investment Deals: Strengthening U.S. Leverage
While Trump’s tariff strategy dominated headlines, his administration also sealed historic investment agreements during a recent Middle East tour. The president signed a $600 billion deal with Saudi Arabia and secured more than $3 trillion in investments with the United Arab Emirates.
These moves, Cass argued, further highlight the administration’s economic pivot toward self-sufficiency, stronger bilateral partnerships, and strategic independence from China.
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Critics Question Market Volatility, But Support Grows for Trump’s Trade Doctrine
Although some analysts have raised concerns about market volatility resulting from Trump’s economic policies, others—like Cass—believe the long-term rewards outweigh the short-term risks.
“This isn’t about a quick fix,” Cass concluded. “It’s about establishing a new global trade system that protects U.S. interests, promotes fair competition, and empowers America’s allies to rise together.”
As the world watches how Trump’s tariff strategy evolves, economists and policymakers alike are now grappling with the question: Is this the end of globalism and the start of an American-led trade revolution?
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