Former Vice President Kamala Harris is reportedly considering a 2026 run for California governor, but some top political commentators say her chances of winning are surprisingly low. During a recent broadcast of The Morning Meeting, well-known political voices including Mark Halperin, Sean Spicer, and Dan Turrentine warned that Harris may be heading for a humiliating political defeat if she enters the race.
While close allies of Harris told The New York Times she is more likely to focus on a gubernatorial bid than a second presidential run in 2028, experienced strategists believe her public perception and past campaign missteps could spell disaster.
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Sean Spicer Dismisses Harris as a Viable Candidate
Former White House Press Secretary Sean Spicer was particularly critical, citing revelations from the book Fight by Jonathan Allen and Amie Parnes. He argued that Harris’s past campaign failures and poor leadership make her unfit for statewide office, even in deep-blue California.
“If she ran for dogcatcher, she’d lose. The book details her inability to manage staff, chaotic decision-making, and a complete failure to connect with voters,” Spicer said.
Dan Turrentine: Harris Would Struggle to Win Even in California
Dan Turrentine, a former Democratic strategist, echoed the doubts. He said that while Harris may think a California governor campaign would be easy, it would likely end in a major political setback.
“She’s underestimated the challenge,” Turrentine explained. “If I had to bet today, I’d say she loses. The same weaknesses that sank her past campaigns haven’t gone away.”
Halperin: Loss Would Be “Existentially Destabilizing”
Renowned analyst Mark Halperin agreed with the other hosts, adding that a defeat could permanently damage Harris’s political future.
“If she loses in her home state, the fallout won’t just be political — it will be personally and professionally devastating,” he noted.
Harris Allies Paint a Different Picture
Despite the dire warnings, some close to Harris believe she remains a strong contender. The New York Times reported that Lieutenant Governor Eleni Kounalakis would likely step aside if Harris enters the race. Former Rep. Katie Porter even said her presence would cause a “near field-clearing effect.”
Still, experts like Halperin caution that name recognition alone won’t carry Harris to victory. He stated back in December that while Harris has a better shot at winning the governor’s race than securing the 2028 Democratic nomination, neither path would be easy.
“Her biggest problem is that she avoids making tough decisions under pressure,” Halperin said. “That’s exactly what the job of California governor demands — and it’s the same reason she struggled on the national stage.”
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Will Kamala Harris Run for California Governor in 2026?
The growing speculation around Kamala Harris’s political future reflects a broader debate within the Democratic Party. While some insiders continue to push her as a frontrunner, others believe her previous campaign failures, lack of leadership under stress, and troubled public image could become insurmountable obstacles — even in one of the bluest states in America.
For Harris, the next step could define her legacy. Will she embrace the challenge of California’s highest state office, or will warnings from political veterans push her to reconsider?
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